Monday, December 24, 2012

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year !

"O Holy Night," also known as Minuit, Chrétiens (Midnight, Christians) or Cantique de Noël.The original French lyrics were written by Placide Cappeau (1808-1877) and the melody was composed by Adolphe Adam (1803-1856) who composed the score for the ballet Giselle. The song was first performed in 1847 during a Christmas Eve mass in Roquemaure. It was later translated from French to English by John Sullivan Dwight (1813-1893).

This Christmas carol was played live over the radio on December 24, 1906. The Christmas radio show was broadcasted by Reginald Fessenden from Brant Rock, Massachusetts.


Oh holy night, the stars are brightly shining
It is the night of our dear Savior's birth
Long lay the world in sin and error pining
Till He appeared and the soul felt it's worth

A thrill of hope, the weary world rejoices
For yonder breaks a new and glorious morn
Fall on your knees
Oh, hear the angel voices

Oh, night divine
Oh, night when Christ was born
Oh, night divine
Oh night, oh night divine

Truly He taught us to love one another
His law is love and His gospel is peace
Chains, shall He break for the slave is our brother
And in His name all oppression shall cease

Sweet hymns of joy in grateful chorus raise we
Let all within us praise His holy name
Christ is the Lord
Their name, forever praise we

Noel, Noel
Oh night, oh, night divine
Noel, Noel
Oh night, oh, night divine
Noel, Noel
Oh, oh, holy night

Merry Christmas  and a Happy New Year !

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Will the World end on 2012 ? what about 2038 ?

"The end of the world on December 2012" , probably the most feared and widely discussed thing these days. This has been probably aggravated by the recent natural disasters faced by the world such as hurricane Sandy. Though there are no scientific evidence to suggest the end of the world on 2012 most of the people reluctant to accept it as just a myth.

They claim the Maya calender ends on December 21st 2012. So whats the big deal ? Calenders do need to have an end. In fact every thing do need to have a beginning and an end. The Maya calendar starts from 3114 BC . Does that mean that the world started or began on 3114 BC ? not really. The years 3114 BC and 2012 were the years where Mayans had to remove their old calenders and get a new calender. Just as we change our calenders on January 1st. The only difference is Mayan calender was so huge and one calender was enough for massive number of generations (Calender making would not have been a prosperous business in Mayan culture).  They may have further extend their calender if they had more space and time to write the calender.

Similar problems of running out of space for keeping the time occurs even in the modern world. The Year 2038 problem is one example. This will occur on January 19th 2038.The reason is that we use 32 bit integers to represent the date objects in computers and digital systems. In these systems the date is represented as the number of seconds since January 1st 1970. The maximum integer that can be represented  by 32 bit representation is 2147483647. This is the number of seconds up to January 19th 2038. So effectively our digital calenders ends on 2038. So will the world end on January 19th 2038 ? May be in the future when a more civilized and developed society finds about this conflict, they may fear that the world ends on that day. 

Although this 19th January 2038 does not physically end the world, many problems will arise in digital systems. Almost all the systems now been used would not be able to perform date calculations. The day will be reset to Friday 13th December 1901 after 2038 causing many problems. The solution is to increase the number of bits used to represent a date in digital systems. But this will introduce backward compatible problems with current software architectures. So still a universal solution have not been found. But probably in the near future people with come up with many plausible solutions and there is no need to fear about the end of the world, unless we dig our own grave due to wars and environment pollution.

Saturday, September 1, 2012

SLPL - Sri Lanka Premier League

The inaugural session of SLPL finished yesterday with "Uva Next" crowning as the champions in a rain shortened match.  Although the final was highly affected with rain the thrill of a final was never lost mostly due to the unbelievable batting cameos by Mathews and Dilshan Munaweera. Probably the use of the "Duckworth-Lewis Method" in this match would not that fair to both the teams. But as per the performances of the teams I believe "Uva Next" deserved to be the champions after beating in form "Wayamba" convincingly in the semifinals. As in the half way stage it is also important to look at the performances of the teams and individual players. 

  • The main target behind the SLPL was to improve the cricketing skills of the local players and giving them a chance to perform with international players. Some of the players performed very well and some failed to take the maximum use of their chance. Some senior players such as T.M. Dilshan and Mahela regained their form through SLPL while players like Ajantha Mendis gained their way to the national team once again through SLPL. Mathews showcased his captaincy skills and his improved consistency as a finisher. 
  • Akila Dananjaya and Dilshan Munaweera have been the finds of the tournament. Both of them earned a place in the squad for the World T20.  Munaweera surpassed Mathews as the highest run-getter in the tournament by 1 run in the final. Probably this should earn him a place in the starting 11 in the T20 world cup. Though Akila Dananjaya performed well in the early stages he was attacked severly in the final matches he played. Thus I think he should improve more before getting a Sri Lankan cap.

  • Dinesh Chandimal and Thissara Perera were among the disappointments of the tournament. As the next generation of the Sri Lankan cricket a lot were expected from them. Also Bhanuka Rajapaksha failed miserably during the SLPL. The performance of local bowlers were also below par. 

  • Undoubtedly Pakistan players are the most benefited international players from this tournament. Most of the Pakistan players took part in this SLPL and they performed well in their respective SLPL teams and most of them got the chance to be in the playing 11. Players like Kamran Akmal made this a chance to regain their form and earn a place in their national teams. Also the experience they got from playing in World T20 venues will be very useful.

  • Another disappointment was the failure of retired players. Jayasuriya and Muralitharan was totally out of form. Surprisingly Muralitharan remains at the bottom of the best bowlers list. He failed to take a wicket in his four appearances for Uthura Rudras and leaked 8 runs per over. His performance probably affected Uthura and they lost their first four games in a row. 

  • The most disturbing thing about SLPL is not the failures of upcoming players nor the success of foreign players, but the success of Sri Lankan players who have failed repeatedly at the international level. Their success induce a fear in the minds of Sri Lankan supporters. Fortunately despite the  cameo played by Kapugedara against Ruhuna , he failed to secure a place on national team for the T20 world cup.

  • Basnahira and Uthura were the main disappointments of the tournament. Although they had good teams the performance was well below par. And Wayamba was the chokers of the tournament.They outplayed all other teams in the league stage but choked in the semifinal. They had a very good team balance which can play on par with any other club team in the world and they would have a realistic chance to win the Champions League if they got selected. Missing Kamran Akmal in the semi finals due to national duty dented their chance of winning the semifinal.    

  • The SLPL started with lot of controversies. This was expected to start last year. But due to intervention of India it was postponed. Even in this edition no Indian players took part. Also the expected foreign stars decided to stay away from it at the last moment. And some players leaved SLPL at the halfway stage citing different reasons. But yet I think it helped Sri Lanka to uncover the next generation of cricketers. Also Hope that "UVA NEXT" will perform well at the upcoming Champions League in October.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

SLPL at the Halfway Stage

Inaugural SLPL is now in it's halfway stage. 15 matches out of total 24 matches have been completed and two teams have almost been knocked out (there is a slight chance for Basnahira and Uthura to qualify, given that a combination of results go in their favour, which is highly unlikely ) and one team have already qualified to the semi finals.Other four teams are playing for the three slots available in the knockouts. Here are some of my opinions on the SLPL so far.

  • The attendance for the matches were very low. The matches played at the RPS Colombo were the least attended matches. This has been one of the major criticism of the SLPL. As I get to know the price of the tickets are not high and a lot of tickets are distributed freely. But it should be noted that unlike in India the available market is very low. After all we don't have a population of 1.2 billion as in India. Even Mumbai have a population of 12 million which is more than a half of Sri Lanka's entire population. So it is somewhat unfair to expect a good attendance for SLPL as in IPL.

  • However I think if matches are played on different venues the attendance can be increased. Galle and Dambulla would have been good revenue generators. Probably for the next edition of SLPL they should have some matches at those venues. 

  • The teams are named according to provinces in Sri Lanka. But being a small country divisions based on provinces is not that evident as in India. As the matches are just played in Colombo and Kandy there is no fan base for these teams from their respective provinces. I think this is also a reason for the low attendance in matches. Also the players in those teams do not belong to the respective provinces. It's funny that Sanath Jayasuriya being an icon from Matara playing for Kandurata. Also the names given to teams are very annoying. After all I am still wondering about the meaning of word "Dundee" ???

  • Currently Sri Lanka is facing a power crisis due to droughts and the breakdown of the Norochcholai power plant. Most of us experience a power cut of three and a half hours each day. But most of the matches are played under floodlights. With the low number of attendance and the current situation in the country , flood lit domestic matches are the last thing we want.  

  • The major motivation for organizing this tournament was the profit. SLC was desperate for money especially after going bankrupt. After the successful audition of the team-franchises it was evident that this has the potential to become financially successful. But we must not forget that Sri Lanka manged to incur a huge loss from the ICC Cricket World Cup 2011, while all other hosting countries made huge profits. Thus I am not surprised if I get to know that SLC incur a huge loss from this SLPL. 

  • Anyway I think this is a great opportunity for Sri Lankan players. Senior players can make this a chance to prepare for the T20 world cup next month. Also this will be a great opportunity for young players  to show their talents and make a name for themselves. I sincerely hope that at least few players will make their way in to the national side through this series. 

Saturday, July 28, 2012

A Great Place for Free Online Learning - Coursera

Coursera is a great place for online learning. This has subjects varying from Computer Science to History , Sociology, Medicine and Music. All the subjects are offered from the top ranked Universities in the world. Currently there are 16 Universities affiliated with Coursera and this includes MIT, CIT , Stanford University and Princeton University.

Some available courses 
The courses offered are well organized. Around 5-12 hours per week are required to complete a course and the duration of the course will be 6-16 weeks. Almost all the courses includes weekly lectures which have a duration of around 10-20 minutes. There will be several lectures per week adding up to 2 hours per week. Also there may be weekly quizzes, assignments or programming assignment depending on the course. Quizzes will either MCQ or short answers which will be evaluated automatically. Assignments are normally peer reviewed. Also most of the courses have an end exam and mid exams.After the completion of the course participants will receive a certificate if they have performed well in exams and assignments. But this certificate will not be considered as an official certificate offered by the relevant University.

Coursera is started by Andrew Ng, an Associate Professor in the Department of Computer Science at Stanford University, and Director of the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Lab and Daphne Koller a Professor in the Department of Computer Science at Stanford University . Although this was started in this year it has many partners. Currently all the courses are free and the business model is not finalized. It is expected that it will be something about selling the information about participants to potential employees and offering of certificates.

Currently Coursera offers more than 100 different subjects. The number of enrollments per subject some times exceeds 100k. These courses will give a very good chance to learn some thing new in a very organized manner. The quality of the courses are very high and it is very good chance to experience the future of e-learning. This will be a very good opportunity to gather international quality knowledge freely.Visit the Coursera web site from the following link.

Monday, July 9, 2012

Hotspot Technology

One of the main technology used in Umpire Decision Review System (UDRS) in cricket is the Hawk-Eye technology which tracks and predicts the path of the ball. Other main technology which is not mandatory under current cricketing laws is the Hot Spot technology. Hot Spot is the best available technology to establish the contact between the ball and the bat or pad.


Australia's Nine Networks owns this technology

Interestingly hot-spot technology was not intended to be used in cricket initially. It was expected to be used in military applications. These includes tracking jet-fighters,warships, tanks and satellites.This technology was founded by french scientist Nicholas Bion and later developed by other companies in paris. The Australian Nine Networks bought and adopted this technology. This technology is now offered by BBG Sports,an Australian company responsible for Snickometer in conjunction with Sky Sports.This technology was first used in the first ashes test match at the Gabba on 23 November 2006. The first usage of Hot Spot in the decision making process in cricket was in 2009 in South Africa.


Hot Spot uses infra-red cameras to capture images. There will be either two or four cameras at each ends of the ground. These cameras sense and measure the heat.When a collision happens either between bat and ball,bat and pad,pad and ball or ground and ball the temperature of those areas will be increased.Thus collided areas will be shown with a different color.


Hot Spot has considerable advantages than other technologies used in Decision Review System.Hawk Eye is only used to predict the path of the ball.The only other technology available to detect collisions with the bat or pad is Snickometer or a very slow motion camera replay. But it only gives an idea about the time the collision happened and its amplitude. Thus no information about the point of contact can be obtained from Snickometer. But Hot Spot cameras gives the exact point of contact of the ball with the bat or pad. Thus Hot Spot is the best available technology to detect whether the ball hit the bat or the pad.


The main disadvantage of this technology is its high cost. The cost of two camera set up is around 5000$ per day for two cameras. So if four cameras are used for a test match total price add up to 50000$. This is a huge amount of money and if we consider the limitation of number of reviews per innings for a team (which is currently two incorrect reviews) this cost can not be justified. Even when hawk-eye and other technologies were available at a much lower price some cricket boards still can not afford them due to financial reasons.

Also the number of Hot Spot cameras available are limited. These cameras are classified as a military device and needs a temporary export license from Australian Defense Department when used in another country. Also there are other government regulations that need to be satisfied.
Due to above reasons the usage of Hot Spot in Umpire Decision Review System is not mandatory.This technology was not used even in the ICC Cricket World Cup 2011.


Although the inventors of Hot Spot claims very high accuracy, some of the decisions involving this technology have been controversial. There have been instances where Snickometer and other technologies confirms that there is a nick but ultimately Hot Spot did not show any evidence. Also during a test match between India and England there was a confident appeal for a caught behind. Although replays suggests that there may be some bat involved Hot Spot technology failed show any edges. Later Michael Vaughan tweeted that Laxman may have used Vaseline in his bat thus making it impossible to detect edges using Hot Spot technology.

Due to this criticism the inventors of hot spot technology carried out more tests on the reliability of the technology and now they have improved there technology and thus the accuracy of the system. Also they have proved that applying Vaseline or any other substance on the bat can not manipulate this technology. 

With new improvements this technology will be very useful for a fair game of cricket.But the problems with the cost and the unavailability of the devices have limited the usage of this in most cricket matches. Unless the price of this technology is reduced and the number of cameras available are increased this will not be part of the mandatory technologies needed in Umpire Decision Review System (UDRS).

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

VJD System - Alternative to the Duckworth-Lewis Method

Although the Duckworth-Lewis method is widely used in international and first class level there are many criticisms about this method.One of the main criticism about the DL method is that it gives a higher weight to number of wickets remaining rather than number of overs left. As an example DL par score jumped from 117 to 140 at the end of 20 overs when West Indies lose there 4th wicket in the 20th over at the recently concluded first ODI match between England and West Indies.WI were 1 run ahead before the wicket and suddenly 23 runs behind the target after the wicket.Thus it is very important to a chasing side, not to lose wickets rather than maintaining the required run rate.

Another problem with the DL method is it's inability to handle the power play overs.There is no way to account for the number of power play overs left and number of power play overs played. Also since it uses a G50 score concept where the average score was considered as 250 for an ODI match ,the target scores obtained by DL method was not very justifiable for very low scores and and for very high scores. Thus the effectiveness of the Duckworth-Lewis method is limited to a range of scores distributed around 250. Although this error was corrected for a certain extent in the professional edition still the Duckworth-Lewis method is not that accurate in lower scores and higher scores.
Duckworth-Lewis Curves

Also when multiple interruptions happens the targets given by the Duckworth-Lewis have many anomalies.  The target given by the Duckworth-Lewis method when the interruption happens during an innings break clearly favors the chasing side if the first innings score is high.This is because they have all the ten wickets in hand at the start and the number of overs are reduced. Due to this fact these days captains choose to field when they win the toss if rain is expected during the match.

Also Duckworth-Lewis method was originally designed for ODI matches. Thus when this was used in T20 matches it gives inefficient and unfair results. This may be because the lack of data to construct the resource curves for T20matches. In-fact the unsuitability of the Duckworth-Lewis method in T20 is the main criticism against it.

V. Jayadevan
Thus the need of a new system to be used in rain affected matches have been raised. The main competitor that has challenged the Duckworth-Lewis method is V. Jayadevan method which is used in Indian domestic matches. This is widely known as VJD method.

The designer of this method V. Jayadevan is currently working as an Engineer, Irrigation Department, Kerala. He has spent fifteen years to develop VJD system which is used for calculating revised target due to interruptions in ODI & T20 cricket matches, as an alternative to the existing D/L system.

Previous posts on Duckworth-Lewis method.

  1. Duckworth-Lewis Method (part 1)
  2. Duckworth-Lewis Method (part 2)
  3. Duckworth-Lewis Method (part 3)

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Transit of Venus

The last Venus transit for this century will be visible to Sri Lanka Tomorrow (June 6th). This will be a great opportunity to us.Following details may help to observe the transit safely and correctly.

Viewing Safely

It is very important to use the safety procedures while observing the transit.Inappropriate viewing methods may result in blindness and other eye problems. Following link contains some safe viewing methods.


Useful Links

Saturday, May 26, 2012

The Hawk Eye Technology

Technology has become an integral part of our lives. The use of technology in sports have also been increased. At first it was about broadcasting events worlwide.  But in the modern times technology is used to increase the fare-play in sports. Cricket has been one of the sports that uses technology extensively.  The first instance of using technology in cricket may be the third umpire concept which was first used in a test match in 1992. Although it was just a simple TV replay it helps a lot to take correct decisions on run outs and stumping and sometimes the legality of catches and to decide about boundaries.
But within the last few years more sophisticated technologies have been emerged and they are now been used in the game of cricket. One such technology is the hawk eye technology which is used in UDRS (Umpire Decision Review System).


Dr.Paul Hawkins
Hawk-Eye is a ball tracking system which is also used in other sports such as tennis. This technology is controlled by the Hawk-Eye Innovations Ltd which is a part of Sony Europe. Initially this was used as a broadcasting tool in cricket LBW decisions and now has become an important part in the decision making process in cricket matches.
The initial research for the Hawk-Eye technology began in 1999 by Dr.Paul Hawkins at Roke Manor Research Ltd. In the year 2001 channel 4 used this technology in broadcasting the Ashes series. In February 2002 this technology was first used in tennis broadcasting. In 2005 Hawk-Eye was permitted to be used as an officiating aid in tennis. This is mainly used to detect the line-calling decisions. In 2007 MCC world cricket committee announces that the Hawk-Eye will be used in the Decision Review System used in cricket.   In 2011 Hawk-Eye was used in a Cricket World Cup for the first time in history. Also there are plans to use Hawk-Eye in Soccer. This is still at the testing stages of FIFA and if the results are successful, this will be used in 2014 world cup.


Camera Placement in Tennis
The Hawk-Eye uses six high speed vision processing cameras positioned at different places in the ground along with two broadcast cameras to calculate the trajectory of the ball. Although there are 8 cameras available only 5 cameras are used depending on the side of the wicket that’s been used. In tennis there are around 10 cameras to track the ball. These cameras obtain a 3D visualization of the path of the ball after it’s been bowled. There will be two trajectories for each ball one for releasing the ball by the bowler up to pitching and another one for pitching the ball up to hitting the batsmen. Using this technology the speed of the ball, the swing of the ball from the bowler’s hand to the pitching point, the pitching point, the bounce of the ball, the spin or deviation of the ball can be obtained. Based on the second trajectory the expected path of the ball will be calculated and used to determine whether it will hit the stumps. This is widely used to decide LBW decisions.


Camera Placement in Cricket
When technology is used in a sport there will be three very important things to consider. First it should be accurate. Then it should be fast enough so that the momentum of the game is not lost due to technology and finally it should be economically and technically affordable to use in normal games.
Hawk-eye is financially feasible. It is a low cost solution which only needs several cameras and some computers to do the calculation. Since cameras will be always available in an international sporting event the installing cost is very low. Also the time taken to calculate the path of the ball is short but sometimes this may damage the momentum of the game. This is one reason that the number of challenges by the players against the normal decisions taken by umpires or referees is limited. In cricket this is two reviews per team in each inning. Also in tennis the player will get two incorrect challenges per and three challenges in a tie break.
But the problem with the Hawk-eye is its accuracy. Although in tennis they have proved that it has an accuracy of 3.6mm in line calling decisions Hawk-Eye has failed to obtain the trust among players, referees and the general public. Also there are few instances in cricket that the decision given by the hawk-eye system is different than what most of the people expected.

Monday, May 21, 2012

Words are all I have, to take your heart away - Bee Gees

Bee Gee legend Robin dies

Robin Hugh Gibb (22 December 1949 – 20 May 2012) was a British singer and songwriter. He is best known as a member of the Bee Gees, co-founded with his twin brother Maurice and older brother Barry. He had another younger brother, Andy Gibb, who was also a very popular solo singer.

Below is one of my favorite songs.This is a song by the Bee Gees, written by Barry, Robin and Maurice Gibb. Barry said in 1996 on the VH1 Storytellers television show that it was written for their manager Robert Stigwood.

Smile an everlasting smile, 
a smile can bring you near to me. 
Don't ever let me find you down, 
cause that would bring a tear to me. 

This world has lost its glory, 
let's start a brand new story now, my love. 
Right now, there'll be no other time 
and I can show you how, my love. 

Talk in everlasting words, 
and dedicate them all to me. 
And I will give you all my life, 
I'm here if you should call to me. 

You think that I don't even mean 
a single word I say. 
It's only words, 
and words are all I have, to take your heart away. 

Friday, March 30, 2012

Some Chuck Norris Facts- Explains Many Things

  • Chuck Norris' tears cure cancer. Too bad he has never cried. 
  • Chuck Norris has already been to Mars; that's why there are no signs of life there. 
  • The Great Wall of China was originally created to keep Chuck Norris out. It failed miserably. 
  • When Alexander Bell invented the telephone he had 3 missed calls from Chuck Norris 
  • Chuck Norris counted to infinity - twice. 
  • Chuck Norris wakes up his alarm clock 
  • Chuck Norris doesn't call the wrong number. You answer the wrong phone. 
  • There used to be a street named after Chuck Norris, but it was changed because nobody crosses Chuck Norris and lives. 
  • Some magicians can walk on water, Chuck Norris can swim through land. 
  • Chuck Norris remembers the future. 
  • Chuck Norris and Superman once fought each other on a bet. The loser had to start wearing his underwear on the outside of his pants. 
  • Chuck Norris will never have a heart attack. His heart isn't nearly foolish enough to attack him. 
  • Chuck Norris received his pilots license by just looking at an airplane. 
  • Chuck Norris does not hunt because the word hunting infers the probability of failure. Chuck Norris goes killing. 
  • Chuck Norris called 911 to order Chinese food and got it. 
  • Only Chuck Norris can dislike on Facebook 
  • Chuck Norris uses a sundial at night. 
  • When Chuck Norris looks at himself at a mirror, there is no reflection. There can only be one Chuck Norris. 
  • Contrary to popular belief, Chuck Norris cannot fly. He just jumps and chooses when to come down. 

Friday, February 10, 2012

So far they WON all matches,So will they LOSE the next ? ( The Gambler's Fallacy)

Well they won all the test matches against India. And so far all the matches of the CB series. They are not a very strong team as the previous Australian teams who controlled the world cricket arena for more than dozen years. But recently they have managed to win a fair amount of matches continuously.  Although Australia have the home advantage I think all the three teams have a somewhat fair chance of winning a match. The probability of an Australian win may be high but the probability of two consecutive wins will be low. And of course the probability of three continuous wins will be much lower. So Does this mean that Australia have a very high chance of loosing the next game ? or India have a high chance of winning the match on 12th ? or more importantly if Australia win on 12th Sri Lanka have very very high chance of winning the next match against Australia ?

This leads us to a very interesting fallacy in probability named as the Gambler's fallacy or Monte Carlo fallacy. So its time to think about this fallacy leaving cricket for a moment.

The Gambler's Fallacy

                 The basic idea of the gambler's fallacy is based on the perception we have that a result which we have obtained for a lengthy sequence will change in the next event. If we got 5 or more heads in a row while tossing an unbiased coin most of the time we will expect a tail in the next event. Not only we think but also we may incorrectly derive that the probability of a tail is much higher than 0.5 and reaching to 1. Lets check this using an example. Lets assume we have a fair coin so that the probability of a head or a tail equals 0.5. Lets consider the case where we get 5 consecutive heads. Then the probability will be 0.5^5=0.03125 which is a very rare event. So now consider a situation where we have already got 4 consecutive heads. So the big question is what is the probability of getting another head in the next tossing of the coin ? One may solve the problem in the following way.
Since the probability of getting 5 consecutive heads is 0.03125 the probability of not getting a head is 1-0.03125=0.96875. So the probabilities of getting a head and getting a tail is respectively 0.03125 and 0.96875. This reasoning highly favors a tail in the next tossing of the coin and this leads to the famous Gambler's Fallacy.
                            The problem of the above reasoning is that it does not take the independence of each tossing. It may be true that we had 4 consecutive heads so far. But it does not alter the probability of the next event. What has happened so far is simply the past and unlike in some real life scenarios they don't affect the future. There will be no demons or angels from the past events affecting the future when the events are simply independent.
                            So the probability of getting a head in the next tossing is still 0.5.  This confusion is the basic root of the gambler's fallacy. When a same result is observed for a large number of times people tend to think that the opposite will occur in the future. Based on that assumption they will bet on those results. This simple fallacy will lead to many interesting explanations of some events. Also there may be some instances where the gambler's fallacy may not be applied. As an example assumption of independence of events may not be totally correct. 
                             In the scenario at the beginning the events are not independent. There is a very slight dependence. Due to the consecutive wins they  may decide to give an opportunity to a new player or to rest some senior players. Then the Gambler's fallacy will not become a fallacy any more and the other two teams may increase their chance of winning.